National expectations for Syracuse football aren’t exactly soaring heading into the 2026 season.
The Orange were picked 14th in the ACC preseason media poll. Their Vegas win total sits at just 4.5 after last year’s disastrous 3-9 finish.
But The Athletic is a little more optimistic.
Its statistical projection has Syracuse finishing 6-7, comfortably clearing that 4.5-win bar. This would give the Orange a bowl game, which would be a solid season for most fans. The model also gives the Orange a 2% chance of reaching the College Football Playoff, although their odds of actually winning the ACC remain below 1%.
But The Athletic’s full Syracuse season outlook makes an interesting case that the Orange could be one of the conference’s surprise teams.
In fact, when asked whether Syracuse will be better, worse or the same in 2026, the answer was simple:
Better.
And there are legitimate reasons why.
Everything Starts With Steve Angeli
The biggest one is obvious.
Syracuse was 3-1 last season when quarterback Steve Angeli tore his Achilles at Clemson.
At the time, Angeli was leading the nation in passing with 1,317 yards and 10 touchdowns in four games.
Even more painfully, he was shredding Clemson when he went down, throwing for 245 yards and two touchdowns in the third quarter alone.
Syracuse never recovered.
The Orange lost their final eight games and didn’t come particularly close to winning another one.
That’s why The Athletic sees an obvious path to improvement if Angeli returns healthy.
It even suggests there’s a case for Syracuse making an “upper-division finish” in the ACC.
That’s significantly more encouraging than a 4.5-win total.
The Dome Could Create Some Chaos
Syracuse’s schedule is difficult, but there’s one enormous advantage:
A lot of the scary games are coming to Syracuse.
Cal, Louisville, Clemson and SMU all have to visit the JMA Wireless Dome.
So does Notre Dame.
That’s a tough home schedule, but it’s also loaded with opportunities for Fran Brown to pull an upset or two.
Syracuse doesn’t need to beat everybody (and they’ll avoid Miami).
Protect home field, steal a game against one of the conference’s better teams and suddenly six wins doesn’t look like the ceiling anymore.
That’s why The Athletic calls Syracuse a potential “feisty spoiler.”
Don’t Forget About the Talent
There are legitimate individual pieces here, too.
The Athletic identifies junior cornerback Chris Peal as Syracuse’s key player and notes that he has potential first-round NFL Draft talent.
That’s particularly intriguing because defensive backs are Brown’s specialty. Brown originally coached Peal at Georgia before the two reunited at Syracuse.
Then there’s Angeli.
If he’s anything close to the quarterback who was leading the country in passing last September, Syracuse possesses something many teams projected around the bottom of their conference simply don’t have:
A difference-maker at quarterback.
The Bar Is Low. Syracuse Can Clear It.
After everything that went wrong last season, expectations have fallen so dramatically that Syracuse doesn’t need a miracle season to surprise people.
Vegas says 4.5 wins.
The Athletic says six.
Win the games Syracuse is supposed to win.
Steal one or two nobody expects.
Do that, and the Orange won’t merely beat last year’s three-win disaster.
They could blow past the expectations everyone set because of it.
