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Syracuse has four more days until it learns its bowl fate. Fans have been on the edge of their seats the last few days worrying whether SU will head to its third postseason contest in four years. It would be an impressive streak, the first time since the 1998-2001 seasons when Paul Pasqualoni led the Orange to a 31-17 stretch and three bowls.
Will it happen? The Fizz crunch’s its bowl calculator and breaks down the full, up to date, current post-season situation for Syracuse in a crowded playoff picture. Take a look at the numbers:
Bowl-Eligible Teams
Right now, 78 teams are bowl eligible for 70 slots. There are only 35 bowls, and this is the largest surplus of teams since before 2005, when there was less than 30 bowl games. Don’t be too concerned over the volume of bowl-eligible teams. Of those 78, there are six non-major conference teams that sit right at 6-6. Take a look:
 FAU                            (Conference-USA)
San Jose State           (Mountain West)
Central Michigan     (MAC)
Troy                              (Sun Belt)
Louisiana Monroe   (Sun Belt)
Texas State                 (Sun Belt)
C-USA and Mountain West teams are likelier to be more enticing to the bowl committees. But most bowl projections (especially from CBS and ESPN) have none of these teams slated in bowls. With this many bowl-eligible teams, that’s just bad luck for smaller conferences. So let’s say, for Syracuse’s sake, without these six teams, there are really only 72 bowl eligible teams.
There are two other intriguing non-major conference bowl eligible teams to keep an eye on. They are both 7-5:
Arkansas State           (Sun Belt)
Texas San Antonio   (Conference-USA)
I know. You‚Äôre probably saying, “Who?’ Well, because the volume of other six- and seven-win major conference teams still bowl eligible, I don‚Äôt think either will be go bowling. But you‚Äôd have to assume one these two teams are in. Down to 71 teams for 70 slots. Note there is also an interesting back story for PR, attendance and TV purposes: UTSA is Larry Coker’s squad.
The Wild Cards
Rutgers (5-6) and SMU (5-6) both have one more game remaining. If both teams win, they are in. Yes, even being the final bowl-eligible teams, these two American Conference teams are in because they’d finish in the top six in their conference. The American gets six automatic tie-ins. Rutgers hosts 2-9 USF and SMU plays no. 16 UCF at home. For our purposes, let’s predict one of those teams wins and the other goes home. That puts us back at 72 teams for 70 slots.
Who Goes Home?
The Fizz‚Äôs final bowl-eligible calculator predicts that two teams might go home that are at least 6-6. You can‚Äôt throw out any more non-major conference teams because the rest all have eight or more wins. The Orange is in a difficult spot because it’s one of 11 ACC teams gunning for eight or nine automatic ACC tie-ins (assuming Florida State makes the BCS National Title with a win over Duke).
Here are the BCS conference teams that are on the cusp:
Syracuse, 6-6                    (ACC)
Pittsburgh, 6-6                 (ACC)
Oregon State, 6-6            (Pac-12)
Washington State, 6-6  (Pac-12)
Mississippi State, 6-6    (SEC)
Despite being 6-6, Mississippi State is in. They are the tenth-best team in the SEC, and that conference gets 10 bowl tie-ins. The Pac-12 only has 7 bowl tie-ins and Washington State and Oregon State are the eighth and ninth-best teams. And of course, Syracuse and Pitt are the only 6-6 ACC teams.
How Can Syracuse Get In?
From our calculations, one, maybe and even two, of these teams go home empty. What can help Syracuse and make the Orange a more intriguing pick than the rest?
1)   It’s 4-4 conference mark technically falls in the top eight of the entire ACC. Bowl committees don’t have to abide strictly to conference standings, though. Maryland has a worse 3-5 conference record, but is 7-5 overall, and its geography makes it a great pick for the Military Bowl in Annapolis.
2)¬†¬†¬†Most bowl projections favor the Orange over the two Pac-12 teams. Both CBS and ESPN have one of the two west coast teams eliminated. Syracuse’s proximity to the NYC market helps immensely.
3)   Hope either SMU or Rutgers loses, AND that the Orange Bowl selects Clemson. The less BCS-level teams fighting for non-BCS bowls, the better for SU. Even despite a lose to South Carolina this week, it’s seems pretty likely the Tigers will land in the Orange Bowl with a 10-2 record, which guarantees the ACC nine automatic tie-ins (with FSU in the championship game, as well).
So if the Orange is the more fascinating pick, which I think it will be, here are the open bowls for Syracuse, assuming it does not get one of the ACC tie-in bowls:
Little Ceasers Pizza Bowl, Detroit—Ford Field (unfilled by Big Ten)
Heart of Dallas Bowl, Dallas—Cotton Bowl (unfilled by Big Ten, assuming Ohio State goes to BCS National Championship)
New Era Pinstripe Bowl, New York—Yankee Stadium (unfilled by Big 12)
BBVA Compass Bowl/Beef O’ Brady’s Bowl (unfilled by American, assuming either or both Rutgers/SMU lose this weekend)
The only of that grouping that seems most unlikely for Syracuse is the Pinstripe Bowl. Notre Dame is already rumored to be taking this open slot.
The odds are in Syracuse’s favor. There’s probably a 75 percent chance Syracuse makes a bowl. Having Rutgers and/or SMU lose this weekend is the only other help the Orange can get at this point in the season. If there’s one treat this week, it’s that Orange fans will get to root against the Scarlet Knights.
Posted by: Kevin Fitzgerald
13 responses to “Breaking Down Postseason Chances: How Syracuse Can Get into a Bowl Game”
Please no more Snow Bowls(Pinstripe). Maybe Detroit?? Because of Ill. connections!! SU gains nothing there. If your thinking about impressing talent-no way!! Take the CUSE on the road down south past MD(please)!! Give these over achievers a nice reward as well as the staff and fans to!! SU has no real power(NOW) in the NYS/NYC/LI/NJ areas. SU has been turned down numerous times and you know that!! Now WIN and that might change. For SU to get better talent will want to come to SU before even contacting them. The HOMERS will still say “we will survive with lesser talent” with that famous word you homers say=HEART!!! NO WAY!! If it takes SU to tavel else where outside its comfort zone for proper good talent DO IT!! Build and they will come!!
Caught some hell knocking dougie and his below .500 record on another blog. I can’t believe the meat heads that believe this guy was good for SU. He was neutral for SU at best!! At the end of Coach P’s reign the real losing started!! GROB made SU a laughing stock by his handling of the team. dougie took over the team and made it a below .500 team for his 4 years!! That’s not sucess at all. Under good programs that would get you fired. Plus he left the program with no regrets!! HCSS out bettered them both by having a better record his 1st year than their 1st years at SU. Even though dougie slipped away unseen into the darkness of lies!! He should never get credit for a proper rebuild of the SU programs!! Plus since he left and being a alum we have heard nothing from him.
DO NOT FORGET THE KIDS OF PSABUSEDU!! THE NCAA DID!!
Its interesting to see DR GROSS politicing for a Bowl invite. Pulling strings and such to get SU a nice get away!! Go gett’m Doc its well deserved!! Well really that’s a short term goal. More important is the delay of the facilities not even started yet, like we were told they would be!! I THINK!! The facilities is SYRACUSE’s LONG TERM goal for program building. SU is behind and still is behind on the facilities front. Poor HCSS and staff must show a recruit an empty parking lot or such and convince the recruit “it will happen”, but its behind so hang in there. That’s a poor sell and I know for a fact it has effected the thought process of some recruits. A promise not fullfilled(I know it will happen someday)has effect on the honesty of a program. Either one says its in or say nothing at all. The latter is Dr Gross’s method. No education on this subject at all!! Poor Judgement!! But Dr go after that bowl!! The players/coaches/fans deserve it!!
@Terry;
I’m not going to find out,by going back through and reading the post on who made a statement four,five weeks ago about Syracuse releasing players from the the team like Marrone had done in his first year at Syracuse when 25 players left the team.
Well I didn’t believe that statement back then but after a discussion I had lastnight I’ve changed my mind. If it’s true that we’re cutting players that allows open spots on the team,then it appears to me that something is happening behind closed doors that none of us know about.
Or maybe the coaching staff already knows about the recruits that want to commit to Syracuse and is making room for them to come here.
Like Terry has asked before,if this is true then why haven’t guys like you DA investagated the rumors and reported on it to see if they are true and what’s behind them? “Investagative Reporting” looks like it’s dead in America. No-one wants to put in the leg work to give us the fans a real story. Just goes to show you just how sad it is to be living in a time when people get lazy and don’t want to get off their behinds to accomplish anything.
Nothing has been said about releasing players we still have full roster not sure what terry is talking about.
I really don’t want to see the cuse go to the Pinstripe Bowl. We have been to that enough. I would like to see the team go to either the bowl in Detroit or Dallas. I’m rooting for them to go to Detroit. I have a brother that lives out there and it would be a good trip. But on the other hand I wouldn’t mind them in the game down in Dallas. I believe that game is more toward Jan isn’t it. Either way a bowl game would help this team with the extra practices.
Hey Terry. I’m with you on the fball facilities. One would think that the ground work would have been already started by now. I also agree with you on the recriuting side of things. How are the coaches going to bring in players when they don’t even see things being done yet.
I remember when that Melo center went up. Once Melo made his donation it didn’t take long for those construction crews to start digging into that hill. I can also remember that by this time of the year they had the steel frame up and you could see progress. Must be the steel that they used on the bball facilities was different than the steel on the fball facilities. I just one can see where the university officials hearts truly lie.
Syracuse and Rutgers in the Pinstripe would be a good grudge match.It might yield some good recruits as well.
Thank you upstate andy. I wanted to mention the quick work of the Melo center a number of times but didn’t!! Sometimes if one bitches too much no one believes them I guess!!
Ron its just something I heard that might happen. I really didn’t push it because “other” programs have done it. And the coward dougie did it too. At that time I was very critical of him too! Its just a wash and clean a program of the fat from the previous program I guess!!
St Petersberg Florida now is the bowl for SU from the guessing experts. Much better than any Snow Bowl anywhere. ND wants warm weather bowl as well from my reading. SU staff is in Florida now looking for talent!! Best fit I see and warm too. Players and staff deserve that after great job this year!! Is it a job to play college football?????? Oh my lost youth!!
Terry, I believe I mentioned what the issue is. There is a cost bust and it looks like someone is playing games. I don’t think it’s Gross or the Athletic Dept.
@Terry;
For now you and I will put this matter on tha back burners ok. We’ll discuss it again if and when it starts to happen. I’ll let you know then what I heard from a respectable source on Tuesday evening at work. When you first mentioned I didn’t think it possible that we would go through that ever again. We’ll revisit it again,I promise.
A couple of cliches,”OH HOW THE MIGHTY HAVE FALLEN”and’IT’S ALL IN THE EYES OF THE BEHOLDER” apply here. some have critized Syracuse for accepting a bid to the Pinstripe Bowl over the last couple of years,describing it as a second rate Bowl or better yet the “Snow Bowl”.
After playing for the 2012 National Championship against Alabama,Notre Dame is the leading candidate to participate in this years bowl game located in the Bronx in NYC.
So from my point of view it begs one to ask the questions. Has the Pinstripe Bowl been elevated itself to becoming relevant within the college bowl structure?
Has Notre Dame fallen to the debts of mediocrity joining the other 75% of the colleges that are already there?
Has Syracuse University by participating/winning in 2 of the first 3 Pinstripe Bowls walking up the stairs to knock on and opening the door of being an elite team again on the national scene?
What do you think? Myself,I think Syracuse is knocking on the door. But what do I know,I’m considered a “homie” that is blind to anything thats happening within the football program.
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