Nate Silver has made his career predicting the odds (with great success) of presidential elections. He pens the highly regarded political blog Five Thirty Eight for the New York Times, and has also applied his stats methods to sports. Monday, Silver took aim at the chances of the remaining 16 teams winning the NCAA title. 
“The 11 teams that the model initially assigned the best chances of winning the tournament were Louisville (a 23.8 percent chance), Indiana (18.4 percent), Florida (13.2 percent), Kansas (7.9 percent), Duke (6.0 percent), Gonzaga (5.6 percent), Ohio State (5.4 percent), Michigan (2.5 percent), Michigan State (2.3 percent), Miami (1.8 percent) and Syracuse (1.8 percent). Only Gonzaga has lost among that group. (Georgetown ‚Ä0.9 percent ‚Äî and New Mexico ‚Äî 0.7 percent ‚Äî also endured major upsets based on their seeding lines, but they were teams that statistical methods weren‚Äôt sold on to begin with.”
Louisville and Florida’s odds went up considerably, based on a couple of factors after the opening weekend. Syracuse’s chances also increased.
“Our system adjusts its estimate of each team‚Äôs strength based on its margin of victory in games so far…¬† The other major factor is what has happened to the opponents that a team is most likely to face: have upsets helped clear out its draw, or instead, is a team running headlong into a series of tough opponents?”
Here’s what Silver writes about the Orange and Hoosiers:
Syracuse (up to 4.8 percent from 1.8 percent) Syracuse’s 47-point win against Montana on Thursday was the largest ever by a team not seeded No. 1 or No. 2 (beating, as it happened, a record that Virginia Commonwealth had set less than an hour earlier). That is, of course, an impressive accomplishment to a model like ours that weighs margin of victory, so Syracuse’s chances of winning the tournament have more than doubled as a result. As with Michigan, this is a case in which late-season performance did not prove all that much: if the Orange are back in the early-season form that saw them start the season 18-1 and beat Louisville, they will make a very tough opponent for Indiana.
Indiana (down to 10.9 percent from 18.4 percent) This is a big decline for Indiana — the model estimates that its chances of winning the national title have dropped by 60 percent. One factor is Indiana’s close call on Sunday against Temple, a team that the computer ratings did not regard as very strong. But perhaps more important, the rest of the top seeds in the East Region have won out. The immediate problem is Indiana’s matchup Thursday against Syracuse, a team that our formula liked to begin with and which has played very well so far. That game will take place at the Verizon Center in Washington, an arena that Syracuse will find familiar from its Big East matchups against rival Georgetown. Indiana’s Round of 8 matchup might actually be easier by comparison, especially if Marquette upsets Miami.
Does SU’s blowout of Montana mean it’s more likely to play better against IU and then win three more? That’s a tough sell for me. The Orange was a far superior team to the Grizz, and took care of business. And to be fair, I was very skeptical of this team heading into the tourney. I figured it would be a close shave in the R64, then a bow out in the R32. But is what transpired a week earlier against a Big Sky team – when Montana couldn’t hit a rib if it fell face first into Dinosaur BBQ – really going to affect a matchup against one of the top 3 teams in the country? But does the margin of victory over a Big Sky team dictate what happens now?
What I do believe is that Syracuse is playing more like the one that hit MSG than the one that finished out the regular season hitting the snooze button. Maybe some of that is confidence gained against Seton Hall, Pitt and Georgetown in NYC. Maybe this team is starting to feel it after winning a pair of games in San Jose. But the Orange 2-3 needs to be stout, the rebounding must be outstanding against Zeller and co., MCW cannot turn over the ball, and Triche/Southerland have to get buckets. SU has to do a decent job against Oladipo, and avoid melting down against tight defensive pressure.
If that happens, Syracuse can beat Indiana. But are the odds of that better because of wins over Montana and Cal? Not so sure. What I would agree with is Silver’s assessment that Indiana has a 58% chance of winning Thursday, SU a 42%.
Posted: D.A.
35 responses to “Nate Silver’s 538 Blog Increases Syracuse’s Chances of Winning the NCAA Title”
@D.A.
Our BIGS have been maligned all season long. This is the game that we’ve been waiting for and the opportunity for Rakeem Christmas and Bayh Keita to show us all(the fans)that we were wrong in our criticism of them. The secret in this game for us is going to be Trevor Cooney. Trevor’s shooting ability and defensive play is going to be outstanding.
The biggest thing in this game is going to be our Zone Defense. Indiana hasn’t faced anything like this all year long and it’s going to give them fits. I look for Syracuse to win this game by 2-3 points and moving them into the “Elite 8” where they will face and win against Miami on Saturday that will advance them to the “Final Four”. If they advance to the Final Four a rematch against Louisville for the National Championship is possible.
GO CUSE;
@Ron
I havent seen anything consisten out of Baye and Rak to make me think they can shut down Zeller. I can very well see him going off like that guy Harrell for Lville in the 2nd half of the BE Title game. If anything, we can only hope we SLOW him down and force them to shoot from outside.
Saying that Cooney is our secret is ridiculous. He is a good defender and had like 2 good games all year shooting. He may be a key perimiter defender, but that is it.
I would say our secret is Triche. If he gets hot shooting and drives the lane with authority then I can very well see us coming away with a victory. I also expect CJ Fair to go bananas with his offensive matchup.
I can only hope that we can Slow down Zeller, and stay out of foul trouble. It will be a close, but GREAT game.
GO ORANGE
DA where’s FOOTBALL!!! Is spring practice over already!! It isn’t August yet is it. Fans are screaming for info!! Nothing here for 5 articles. Sorry, but just need the real fix!!
SUBB Its all about if the Hoosiers can hit the 3’s and feed their big guys. We all know SU’s “D” is good enough, but their shooting and TO’s kill them. To beat Indiana SU must have a good percentage of 3’s and restrict their bigs. GO CUSE BEAT THEM HOOSIERS!!
Everyone here is such a little bitch over football.
This is the middle of the NCAA Tourny and SU is in the sweet 16. Football is coming in the summer so until then just sit back and enjoy some basketball.. damn.
@Andrew;
Thanks for the comments. When Syracuse gets challenged they often respond to all who challenge them. Have you noticed there is noone talking Syracuse Basketball in the Sweet 16? It’s all about Ohio St,Duke,Kansas,Miami,Florida,Indiana and FGCU.
GETTING NO RESPECT FROM THE MEDIA is going to give Syracuse all the motivation/reason they need to go out and destroy Indiana on Thursday Night.
But back to the game,watch out for Cooney and our BIGS will shut Zeller down.
GO CUSE;
IMO, SU’s ability to win out on IU will depend on 1) Defensively: cutting off guard penetration consistently and through out the game, and confronting Zeller at the free throw line taking mid range jumpers while simultaneously keeping him out of rebounding position on the misses, and 2) Offensively: MCW keeping his dribble alive and the ball moving, penetrating and MAKING the two footers he has such a difficult time with, offensive free throw conversion and making enough three’s to allow Triche and MCW to penetrate. SU wins by 5
agree with Andrew. It’s the Sweet 16/March Madness and were playing Indiana. Basketball comes first right now til they lose Terry.
Relax.
Hey Ron,guys?Spring practice over already?No recruit visits?Im tired of logging in twice a day and not a whisper about the “PROGRAM”!!Even in football season we got plenty of hoops….Im glad were winning and all but lets slip a grid story in now and again!!Are me and Terry are the only one’s that care?Thanks Fizz..
Andrew,why anyone interested in football got to be a bitch?Have a little respect for other fans I never knock hoop or Lacrosse fans!!I know some of u guys dont agree w/Terry but hes a loyal fan with a right to his opinion….Im hoping this “Fizz” dont turn into our other blog!!
I think one of the keys will be having our players rested for the last ten minutes. For that to happen, Cooney has to play 12-15 minutes, and not hurt us. He is capable of winning the game for us. He needs a longer leash.
I would like to see JB play Coleman at least 4 minutes per half. That will be a big load off Xmas and Baye, who can split the rest of the time.
Once or twice in the game we can play two of our bigs at the same time.
Grant needs to play 10-12 minutes to make Southerland fresher, better, and out of foul trouble. He should not be pulled the first time he makes a mistake. We really need him. He is a great defender at this stage and needs to feel he can shoot and drive to the lane and shoot or dish.
Jax32 I’ll see if that’s the same in August 2013 about SUBB in SUFB season!! Also alot of us are hooked on the SUBB team now because of the Tournament. And we want them to beat the Hoosiers since that last minute shot still hurts, But SUFB is always # 1 win or loose!!
Russell,I thought that I would never if ever agree with Terry,but in this case I have to say I agree with him. I love both sports and could talk about them for hours at a time,but I feel something is wrong here.
Coach Shafer and staff are kicking butts out there and working overtime to bring in some of the top talent that is available and nothing is being written here. I know were in the middle of the basketball tournament,but enough is enough.
Come on Fizz there are a lot of fans out here that want to know about the recruits that the coaching staff has gone after. What about last weekend when we had some recruits up on the hill?
I know that we got a commit from 6’2″ 210 lb OLB Malcolm Howard out of Texas which is a good get. What about that QB from Oklahoma,is he interested or not? What’s the verdict? Was there any other recruits on campus last weekend or were they the only two?
Come on man you got to start giving us some red meat to chew on for a while. The fans shouldn’t have to ask you for this information,you should be willing to give us as much as possible.
syracusefan.com
All the football info you guys could want
Please stop crying over football every time there is a basketball article.
Andrew,thats just the “other blog or dump”I was alluding too!!Why can’t Fizz finish what they start?They tell whose visiting on the weekend and forget all about it??Im not saying neglect hoops just give s football guys an article to keep us interested!!I understand u guys want ur hoop info…. why not try syracusefan.com?Or write more than one cheezy article we can see on espn all day?Or is that more work than u want?…@Thanks Ron,that commit was’nt even mentioned all week and now were coming into a new weekend and I hear were close w/another 4* wr from Philly area?Anyone home??
No wonder no one (recruits) thinks of us as a football school….if they looked here they’d think we did’nt have much interest in bigtime football!!
@Ron,go back and check hits or comments #s on Grid vs Hoop articles…notice anything?Some football articles get 70+ comments ..how about hoops?No wonder all our friends are disappearing!!
@Russell MacEachern;
There’s no doubt about how we the fans like hearing and reading about what’s happening on the football front.
I haven’t heard anything about any recruits coming to campus for visits this weekend. I’ll keep my ears open over the next couple of days to see if it’s true or not.
@OrangeFizz; We’re not asking for football to be talked about 100% of the time here. We all know it’s still basketball season with Syracuse still in the hunt for the National Championship.
To equalize the reporting and making the Fizz Family happy why not try giving us 50% basketball articles and 50% football articles.
No matter how you look at it D.A. you have to do something on football.
GO CUSE;
@Andrew; I agree with Russell’s post when he states that we don’t have to resort to calling people names here because we all love the game of football.
I personally don’t think of anyone standing 6’2″ 260 lbs is entitled to being labeled a “Little Bitch”. Not on this web site or any other. You may not agree with Terry’s opinions(that’s your choice)but please do us all a favor and keep your personal remarks/name calling to yourself. I for one would appreciate it.
HAHAHAHA
yes I’m sure recruits are checking orangefizz.com to see if they are being talked about.
@ Ron
Instead of 50/50 basketball and football. Why dont they just report Syracuse Athletics news when it happens so the fanbase can keep up with the news that matters in season.
Also, please try to understand that you are no more intimidating that you were a week ago or ever will be. I can give 2 craps on how big and tough you think you are.
@Andrew;
I was stating the size of a person Andrew. That didn’t mean me in any way shape or form. but please let me respond to your asinine assessment. You know nothing about intimidation. Your probably one of those wise ass youngsters on drugs that think they know it all.
Take it from a 66 year old man Andrew, from where I came from you would never have had the nerve to say boo to any of me and my friends.
During my younger days I always found it to be the smaller they are the louder their voice when trying to say something foolish and ignorant. So just guessing you have to be all of 4’11” tall and probably go all of 105 lbs. Christ I have a grandson that big and one other thing I’ve never hit a child,so I guess your protected in a way.
So let me ask,who’s the little bitch here? I know it’s not me.
@Andrew;
I would agree on the reporting of Syracuse Athletics,but again your missing the point,because they’re not reporting on all athletics just basketball.
@Ron,here we go again…if Andrew thinks hes gonna show up and intimadate anyone whose here all year and take over the board cause hes a hoops nut he’s nutz!!I simply asked for a little consideration for all….just one or two articles a week on the Program when we keep getting the samo samo??..Wheres this guy been all year?Probably a bandwagon guy w/no courtesy for others??Wow Ron maybe we should be scared?LOL…
Ron,thats the trouble with Andrew….”I don’t give two craps” about anyone…..Ron,your comment was’nt intended to intimidate anyone but he was looking for trouble from behind the wizards curtain (computer screen)!!
@Russell MacEachern; Your absolutely correct with you assessment on Andrew. What I’ve come to understand Russell is guy’s like Andrew are a DIME A DOZEN that don’t measure up to a pile of fly s**t on a decaying banana peel.
Modern technology makes hero’s out of a lot of wanna be’s that don’t have the courage to say what they mean to another persons face.
Oh well,live goes on.
Wow, seriously guys?
I have been here all along so you can refer to me as a bandwagoner or whatever you want, but all because I dont comment religiously does not mean I dont belong. Please, this is a blog for fans and that is exactly what I am.
Since you are all very hurt by my comments and taking them WAY overboard then let me restate it for you.
I am all for hearing all about SU sports, just like all of you.. that is why we are here. I just tend to notice that very often on this site, there are certain people.. cough.. that comment frequently and complain about the lack of this or lack of that.
Syracuse BASKETBALL is playing against INDIANA#1 seed in the SWEET 16 TONIGHT. I think this qualifies as a big deal, yet in the comments.. at no surprise again.. here we have people complaining about not enough football.. in March.
I am a football fan too, I am sure you are all older than me and have been fans for longer thus making me a speck of a fan to your loyalty to the Orange. I am 28 years old and married with a 3 year old son. I am a financial advisor who bleeds all things Orange. I am not trying to be a troll or hardass punk hiding behind the computer screen trying to be disrespectful to other fans. My comment above about being a little bitch was harsh, I apologize.. but that doesnt not change my opinion of the people that complain ALL THE TIME about football. Again.. it’s march.. let us all enjoy the JB nose picking and Orange winning on the basketball court.
I am sure that if we ever met at the Dome, we would very much enjoy eachothers company. No desrespect to Ron or Russell.
Can we please just ENJOY WHAT IS HAPPENING NOW and not complain so much about what we dont have.
I will end this with 3 simple words..
LETS GO ORANGE.
@Andrew;
I wasn’t trying to intimidate anyone here,never have and never will. It’s not my style and your comment went straight to the core,if you know what I mean.
I always don’t agree with what Terry has to say,but I do respect his right to do so.
Now that you’ve explained to us that your a loyal fan,my outlook on you has changed,and I promise I won’t respond to your comments so strongly in the future.
But please remember in the future when posting we try to keep it clean ok. We try not to call people names.
Thanks again for the above information.
@Andrew;
Why dont they just report Syracuse Athletics news when it happens so the fanbase can keep up with the news that matters in season?
I’m with you,Ive been an orange Fan since 1959 and I like following all of the teams that for Syracuse University.
However,I haven’t noticed any articles covering the #6 ranked Womens Lacrosse Team beating Boston College on Wednesday 17-12. This a team that started #1 in the land and is expected to compete for the National Championship in May.
I didn’t notice any reporting on the Womens Basketball setting new records at Syracuse while accomplishing the most successful season in history Syracuse Basketball. Nothing about 6’4″ Kayla Alexander setting the all time scoring record by breaking the 2000 point mark and especially nothing about the possibility of being drafted into the WNBA.
The Womens Ice Hockey Team had it’s best season in school history and was defeated by Mercyhurst by 1 goal in the Conference CHA championship Game. If they would have won that game it would have put them into the NCAA Tournament for the 1st time ever.
What about the 2013 Womens Sofball Team? They’re down this year after having a very successful 2012 compaign and nothing was reported about them either.
The Women’s Field Hockey Team is ranked #4 in the land and won’t start play until the fall. Let’s see what get reported about them then.
The only people that asked about the WBB team was Russell and I and we didn’t get a response from anyone at the Fizz.
I assume that all who post here have one thing in common,we are all sports fans,but as you can see not all of them share your’s and mine likes and dislikes.
I love to watch a game of college football and want to know what’s going on with our beloved Orange but it’s basketball and I love watching them also.
I’m especially blessed because I get a chance to talk with a lot of the(male/female)athletes every working day.
I don’t expect the FIZZ to report on football everyday of the week,giving us some articles on the recruits coming and going would be nice though.
Have a nice day.
Syracuse by 3-5 points tonight and sends Indiana packing.
My apologies as well Andrew,I dislike namecalling and like Ron we try an keep it clean and friendly or family oriented I simply think that all news should have its place as a 12 month a year Fizz follower like many core diehards!!Thanks for taking the time to give ur point of view!!
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